According to the China Textile Network first reported in the view from the macro side and industrial side, from the monetary policy, industrial production, purchasing managers index, investment, prices, exchange rates, foreign trade, the interest rate thnike dunksat a total of eight areas of 32 selected economic variable as a factor of alternative library, study of these economic variables and the cotton city of short-term and long-term cointegration. Based on the economic variables and categories in the category of information between the comparison and selection, we have formed two groups of samples based on multi-factor model, a set of samples a long time, contains the following five factors: M1 and M2 growth rate of poor long-term trend state variables, the consumer price index (CPI) in the short-term state variables, imports and exports, short-term state variables, the medium-term loans the state variables, its cotton yield on the city of 12.68% sequence can explain; another set of samples is shorter, contains the following three factors: M1 and M2 growth rate of poor long-term state variables, and import volume of short-term state variables, finished goods inventory of mid-state variables three variableNike Dunk SBs, its cotton market return series of monthly with 31.41% of explanatory power. Class of foreign trade and the industrial added value of three variables are lagging behind the cotton market, a long-term positive relationship. Economic variables in the price class, CPI and the Cotton City is a long-lag relationship between the producer price index (PPI) on the cotton market leader of a trend. Urban fixed asset investment leading two months of cotton, and cotton is between the cities of long-term positive relationship. Electricity consumption to lead the market with year on year growth for 1 month. Leading multi-factor model of cotton in the city there are two quantities: PMI diffusion index - production and export orders. Fair this year, export orders were significantly lower than last year, combined with the downward trend of production of tnike dunks highhe judge, comprehensive look at the market we are more cautious the next two weeks.
Cotton prices higher in the downstream product inventory and warehouse receipts under the pressure of weak double contradiction, cotton market at this stage may be the main trend of the tone adjustment shocks. As South America to increase the supply of new cotton, cotton is expected to Cheng finished lower short-term.
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