According to the China Textile Network first reported in the view from the macro side and industrial side, from the monetary policy, industrial production, purchasing managers index, investment, prices, exchange rates, foreign trade, the interest rate thnike dunksat a total of eight areas of 32 selected economic variable as a factor of alternative library, study of these economic variables and the cotton city of short-term and long-term cointegration. Based on the economic variables and categories in the category of information between the comparison and selection, we have formed two groups of samples based on multi-factor model, a set of samples a long time, contains the following five factors: M1 and M2 growth rate of poor long-term trend state variables, the consumer price index (CPI) in the short-term state variables, imports and exports, short-term state variables, the medium-term loans the state variables, its cotton yield on the city of 12.68% sequence can explain; another set of samples is shorter, contains the following three factors: M1 and M2 growth rate of poor long-term state variables, and import volume of short-term state variables, finished goods inventory of mid-state variables three variableNike Dunk SBs, its cotton market return series of monthly with 31.41% of explanatory power. Class of foreign trade and the industrial added value of three variables are lagging behind the cotton market, a long-term positive relationship. Economic variables in the price class, CPI and the Cotton City is a long-lag relationship between the producer price index (PPI) on the cotton market leader of a trend. Urban fixed asset investment leading two months of cotton, and cotton is between the cities of long-term positive relationship. Electricity consumption to lead the market with year on year growth for 1 month. Leading multi-factor model of cotton in the city there are two quantities: PMI diffusion index - production and export orders. Fair this year, export orders were significantly lower than last year, combined with the downward trend of production of tnike dunks highhe judge, comprehensive look at the market we are more cautious the next two weeks.
Cotton prices higher in the downstream product inventory and warehouse receipts under the pressure of weak double contradiction, cotton market at this stage may be the main trend of the tone adjustment shocks. As South America to increase the supply of new cotton, cotton is expected to Cheng finished lower short-term.
Will cut tax rebates on textile exports rumors of a quarter of this year will be endless. Recently, another source sawholesale sunglassesd: textile export tax rebate rate will be reduced in the year, down 5 percentage points increase from the current 16% to 11%. Renewed rumors that the market will inevitably panic. However, I believe, so down time significantly textile export tax rebate rate, highly unlikely.
Recalling the last countries to adjust export tax rebate on textile background: when starting from August 2008, just six months, the state has 4 textile and garment export tax rebate rate increase, 11% from the original total of upwards of 16%. This is based on the RMB appreciation, rising costs, shrinking international demand superposition of multiple factors such as the impact of Chinese textile and garment export growth declined significantly, Pearl River Delta region have a large number of business failures in the background. This is an export tax rebate rate adjustment is to help companies tide over the difficulties of the financial crisis.
Look at today's situation, although the first quarter of 2011, the data show China's textile and apparel exports exceeded market expectations, but if careful study is not difficult to raise the prices of export products found a quarter of a major contributor to export growth. On the other hand, the 109 in the just concluded session of the Canton Fair, many companies are worried about the way that policy adjustments by the widespread fear and rising costs, suppliers can not take a long single, buyers still doubts about the market outlook, the next One caution. During the fair, the order nearly 90% of the short single, long single account for only about 10%.
I believe that the current government efforts to control foreign exchange reserves are, and textiles and clothing exports a great surplus, so expect in the near future to stimulate the introduction of the policy of textiles and apparel products is not very realistic, before the rumors are not groundless. However, after the rumors is only due consultation of relevant departments, not the final policy options. Consultation draft of the content is only on the part of textile and clothing products tax rate of 2 to 3 percentage points of adjustment.
Recent rumors said that the departments concerned have basically achieved the same rate of textile export tax rebate rate cut will not be less than 5 percentage points, seems to be that all the products down 5 percentage points or more. This obviously does not meet the policy is introduced laws, policies, general always try a small margin, and then step by step, not directly under the heavy hand. If the practice by the rumors, the government in the suppression of inflation, one should raise interest rates by 2 percentage points, one to raise the deposit reserve ratio by 10 percentage points. Clearly, any responsible government will not do, not to mention the tens of thousands of textile jobs that involve the livelihood sector.
Early April of this year, according to the author learned that the Ministry of Industry, Development and ReforReplica Sunglasses m Commission and relevant state departments on whether to adjust export tax rebate for some products being discussed. In terms of actual exports in 2010 to measure, the export tax rebate policy adjustment will involve the export of 400 billion dollars, down in the range of 2 to 3 points.
When renewed speculation in recent days, I once again consult the people concerned that, in order to curb the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves momentum in March to develop the Ministry of Finance does have a lower export tax rebate program, textiles and clothing are also included, the adjustment is 2 to 3 percentage points. While some certain products in other industries, the magnitude of the tax rebate rate down 5 percentage points or more. Another related sources, the policy of export tax rebate rate cut may be introduced at 6 to 7 months, due to pre-coordination, tax cut policy was first introduced, textiles and clothing is not in the lower range. Of course, these are just speculation, and ultimately will have to see the introduction of the policy. The special protection of the class of trade friction, but also to export textile and gcheap sunglassesi arment industry is difficult to sit back and relax.